CDM in the Kyoto Negotiations:

The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) under the Kyoto Protocol to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) has its origins in the decade of UNFCCC negotiations. ‘Joint implementation’ and ‘activities implemented jointly pilot’ opened the door for the project-based mechanisms between developed and developing countries. The US proposal of the Joint Implementation in the Kyoto Protocol negotiations was almost identical with CDM approved in Kyoto; however, a detour around the Clean Development Fund (CDF) concept raised by Brazil in the negotiations catalyzed the mutual understanding on the win-win nature of the concept of joint implementation.CDM has been played an important role to bridge the developed and developing countries in its development process initiated as the joint implementation in the UNFCCC, and can lead to the cooperative future in the implementation stage starting from the year 2003, including the development of future commitments beyond 2013. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

A Variance Estimator for Constrained Estimates of Change in Relative Categorical Frequencies

Consistent estimators of change and state becomes an issue when sample data come from a mix of permanent and temporary observation units. A joint maximum likelihood estimator of state and change creates estimates of state that depend on antecedent viz. posterior survey results and may differ from estimates of state derived from a single-date analysis of the sample data. A constrained estimator of change in relative categorical frequencies that eliminates this potential inconsistency is proposed and a model based estimator of their sampling variance is developed. The performance of the constrained estimator is quantified against six criteria and a joint maximum likelihood estimator in simulated sampling from 15 populations with three combinations of permanent and temporary samples, four to six categorical class attributes, and constant size between sampling dates. Bias of the constrained estimators was negligible but larger than for joint maximum likelihood estimators. Mean absolute deviations and variances of constrained estimators were generally at par with the joint estimators. Constrained estimators of root mean square errors and achieved coverage of nominal confidence intervals of constrained estimators were occasionally better. A generalized variance function for the constrained estimates of change is provided as a computational shortcut.     

梯齿形桥梁伸缩缝U形弯曲件的成形技术

此文介绍一种新型桥梁伸缩缝关键零件U形弯曲件的成形技术.通过对该零件的变形分析和采用合理的工艺措施,使得这一成形难度较大的弯曲件一次压制获得成功.     

滞洪型平原水库蓄水对水环境影响分析及其协同调控研究

本文通过滞洪型水库运行机理的介绍,以石佛寺水库为例,提出利用地表水和地下水协同调控解决蓄水带来的环境负效应,通过建立库区水环境统一模型,利用数值模拟方法分析预测水库蓄水对环境的影响,并对解决水库蓄水产生的环境负效应进行方案的优化选择,最终提出地表水库蓄水和地下水库供水的最优方案.     

电热管焊接接头挤压裂纹的分析

针对电热管焊接接头挤压产生的裂纹 ,通过采用金相显微镜观察其金相组织并用直读光谱对原材料成分进行化学成分分析 ,排除了成分、焊接工艺规范等的影响。经过对挤压过程分析 ,发现应力集中点是产生裂纹的主要原因 ,并提出了改进的方法     

水深变化对波高与周期联合概率密度分布影响的分析

本文研究了水深的变化以波高与周期联合概率密度分布造成影响。本文将２３６组实测数据按水深因子Ｈ的大小进行了分组，分别对其进行了谱分析和统计分析，得到了各组数据的联合分布图。利用数值模拟的方法扩大水深因子的变化幅度，得到了模拟联合分布图。研究发现，水深因子的改变不会对联合分布构成大的影响，因此得现一般水的波高与周期联合概率密度分布模式适用于浅海的结论。     

城乡接合部居民楼火灾风险评价及防控对策研究

为了准确探究城乡接合部居民楼火灾事故致因机理,预防与控制城乡接合部日常生产与生活过程中引发火灾事故的有效途径,建立信息面更全、实际性更强的火灾风险评估模型是目前行之有效的手段。基于湖南省某地发生火灾事故的实际情况,根据事故树分析法,以城乡接合部居民楼火灾事故为顶事件构建事故树,计算得到事故树的最小割集、最小径集和结构重要度,研究城乡接合部居民楼火灾事故的发生模式、致因因素及影响程度,为改善城乡接合部居民楼火灾安全提供重要的理论依据,并提出相应的防控措施及对策。     

抗生素与LED209对大肠杆菌的联合毒性机制

抗生素是一把双刃剑,在提高医疗水平的同时会促进抗性基因的发展。群体感应抑制剂(quorum sensing inhibitors,QSIs)可有效地避免这一缺陷,有望成为抗生素的替代品而与抗生素有环境共存的可能,但目前尚缺乏它们的联合毒性机制及其相关的环境风险评价研究。本文以大肠杆菌为受试生物,测定了群体感应抑制剂N-苯基-4-(3-苯基硫代脲基)苯磺酰胺(LED209)与5种抗生素的单一和二元联合毒性。结果表明,LED209与5种抗生素的联合毒性作用均表现为拮抗,推测是LED209通过影响鞭毛合成,减弱了抗生素对大肠杆菌的生物有效性;同时通过拆分分子式,发现了拮抗作用可能源于LED209分子式中的含苯基和硫代脲基的L1分子,因此建议未来在LED209药物优化时,应尽可能的保留L1部分的基团,从而保证混合体系的最小环境风险。本研究不仅为联合用药提供依据,而且从环境风险评价角度为抗生素替代品LED209的结构优化提供理论指导。     

菲和镉单一及复合污染条件下在毛蚶体内的富集动力学研究

采用室内半静态双箱动力学模型实验,研究了菲和镉单一及复合污染条件下在毛蚶(Anadara subcrenata)体内的生物富集,通过对富集与释放过程中毛蚶体内菲和Cd的富集量进行非线性曲线拟合,获得了菲和Cd单一及复合污染条件下在毛蚶体内的吸收速率常数k1、释放速率常数k2、生物富集因子BCF、生物半衰期B1/2和平衡状态下最大富集量CA max等动力学参数。实验结果表明,菲和Cd在实验前期富集速率较高,8 d以后富集速率减缓,释放阶段与富集阶段相似。毛蚶对菲的BCF值为37.80,远大于Cd的BCF值13.12,且生物半衰期时间更长,菲更容易在生物体内富集。菲和Cd联合暴露条件下,在毛蚶体内的CA max和BCF值均大于单一作用,说明二者同时暴露时,毛蚶对菲和镉的吸收富集均有所增强。实验模型拟合度较好,输出值和实测值之间无显著性差异,拟合方程和拟合参数可信。     

有机磷农药二元混合物联合效应评价新方法的研究

以敌敌畏、乐果联合作用于线虫的毒理学实验为基础,基于FH插值法理论,通过较少的实验数据建立有机磷农药二元混合物联合效应模型,求解作用效应表达式并绘制联合效应三维曲面图;基于合并用药分析公式,计算联合作用评价q值并绘制农药浓度与q值的联合作用评价三维曲面图,结果表明敌敌畏与乐果混合物联合作用不仅表现为相加作用,而且还在局部低浓度表现为拮抗作用,与多元统计分析结果一致。上述研究表明FH插值法理论可作为二元有机磷农药联合效应分析及评价的一种新方法。